Tuesday, December 13, 2011

It's About Time

Via Drudge on Twitter, I read a short article this morning.  Why he linked to a Canadian paper, I don't know.  Maybe no American paper covered the story?  (Can't be bothered to google it.)  In any case, the headline is "Hurricane predictors admit they can't predict hurricanes."  (Heh.  That's probably why this article was selected.  Funny headline.)

Brief excerpt:
Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, revered like rock stars in Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice because it doesn’t work.

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no value.
First of all, I wouldn't say that the hurricane forecasters are "revered like rock stars in Deep South hurricane country".  I happen to live in Deep South hurricane country-- right in the heart of it-- and the people I talk to generally seem to agree that the weather forecasters don't really know whether a year's going to be more or less active than usual.  They've gotten pretty good at forecasting the general area where a storm will make landfall, but they've proven they can't tell how many storms will develop in a given period of time. 

Second, good for them!  It's nice when experts are willing to admit it when they realize that something doesn't work.  (Of course, many of us had already stopped paying serious attention, anyway.)